Recent Sociocultural Changes Reverse the Long-Term Trend of Declining Habitat Availability for Large Wild Mammals in Europe

Abstract

Aim: People have strongly influenced the biosphere for millennia, but how their increasing activities have shaped wildlife distribution is incompletely understood. We examined how the distribution of European large (>8 kg), wild mammals has changed in association with changing anthropogenic pressures and climate change through the Holocene.

Location: Europe.

Methods: We used over 17,000 zooarchaeological records of 20 species spanning 12,000 years to develop time-calibrated species distribution models, incorporating dynamic data on cropland extent, natural vegetation fragmentation, human population density and climate. We assessed habitat availability and potential species richness across time and within seven biogeographical regions. We also compared anthropogenic pressures at zooarchaeological record sites with present-day habitats of remaining large mammals to evaluate recent increases in their potential for coexistence with human activities.

Results: We found a continuous decline in potential large mammal species richness, particularly linked to changes in human population density. Most habitat loss became evident continentally after 1500 AD, but in the Atlantic and Mediterranean bioregions, habitat loss reached 20% during the Iron/Roman Ages (1000 BC–500 AD) due to increasing human population density. Climate change initially boosted species richness (+0.67 species/km² on average) until the end of the Mesolithic but had negligible effects afterward. Today, large mammals appear to have a higher potential for coexisting with people compared to the past (e.g., herbivores today inhabit areas with a mean human population density of 95 people/km² , compared to an average of 17 people/km² in the period 1500–2000 AD)

Main conclusions: Our study emphasizes the crucial role of anthropogenic pressures over natural climate change in determining the distribution and diversity of large mammal communities throughout history. Additionally, our results indicate that contemporary anthropogenic trends like land-use de-intensification and stronger conservation policies can counteract the impact of past, higher anthropogenic pressures and reverse defaunation.